These are some observations of mine regarding the R34 GT-R but in reality these apply to the R32 and R33 models as well. To be honest they also apply to a lot of the hero cars from the 90s/00s JDM era – think Supras, RX7s, etc. What brought this up was a quick look at carsales.com.au – there were no 34 GT-Rs for sale across Australia on the site, something I have never seen before… So why is that?
To give some context, generally there have been about 10 for sale over the past year or two at any one time, before that there could be 15 or more – that was certainly the case when I was purchasing mine. During this time the price has been steadily rising – a reflection of their growing popularity the world over.
So why are we seeing this rise increase in popularity and what about the corresponding rise in price? Is it a good thing? Unfortunately, I have more questions than answers myself but I can give you my thoughts about the current state of affairs:
United States of America
Much has been said about the influence the United States of America is having on the JDM market and from the outside, it seems to be the driving factor for a lot of what is going on at the moment. In summary, you have a country with over 300 million people who can now (in this case R32s/33s) or very shortly (R34s) legally import/register these cars. Sheer quantity of numbers means demand is up and this is having a flow on effect with pricing. The latest quarterly auction report from http://gtr-registry.com/en-r34-gtr-auction-results.php shows a 13.47% increase in the past 13 months – these number just reference the Japanese auction results but I feel it gives a good barometer of the global market. Recently a prominent Japanese car exporter has said 80% of the R34s they have dealt with recently have been exported to the USA, so this backs up the theory! Of course this won’t be news to many of you and as you can see from the image below, people have been buying and storing cars for many years in preparation for them becoming legal. I should point out there is nothing illegal about this – business is business!
Why are R34 GT-Rs becoming so popular in America now? First of all, barring a few scenarios (Motorex cars, Midnight Purple II & M Spec Nur cars) they are not legal for import/registration… yet. The key word is ‘yet’ as they will start becoming eligible from 2024 – that is when they become 25 years old and meet the age eligibility in the States for no frills, easier, legal registration. Why are people interested in them now – The common explanation is the Fast & Furious franchise which kicked off in 2001 and has continued since. This franchise has driven the R34 GT-R to be the halo car of a generation…. one question: Gallo 12 or 24? I think if you dig a bit further, there is more to it, when you were young and growing up you had a favourite car, of course being a kid meant A) you couldn’t drive B) you didn’t have the means to buy said car. Of course 20 years later when you are earning money what do you buy? I think this theory holds true for various cars – look at the state of the market for air cooled Porsches! 20 years ago it was magazines and VCRs that provided you information – unlike today, where the internet and various social media platforms, give you access to a huge amount of information. Speaking of social media, I have noticed there are some well known YouTube identities who now drive these cars and that has no doubt further fueled their desirability. Back to the cause of their popularity, no doubt that gaming – Gran Turismo initially springs to mind, introduced a generation to these cars. There were others but the point is that these cars were only available in games or in print, you couldn’t see them on the streets – as much as the term is thrown around, unicorns! That initially planted the seed for many of us…
With R32s already popular in the USA (If I see another wide body R32 on Instagram I swear… haha), R33s gaining popularity, the next model coming is the R34. It seems the time has come where it is feasible to start buying and storing these R34s in preparation for their legal status. It is worth pointing out that it is not only Americans storing them, I will touch on this later.
So in summary, for the USA, their interest in R34 GT-Rs hasn’t sprung up overnight but rather is a product of various influences over the past 20 years or so. This appetite for R34s is so strong it has started to influence the overall global market in general.
Rest of the World
It would be a bit remiss of me not to mention other areas of the world relevant to this story. Broadly I break them into two categories, those countries where the GT-R scene is well established, they may have had them available from new and/or have a strong import scene. Obvious examples to me in this category are the United Kingdom and New Zealand. I suspect they are experiencing the same uplift in pricing as we are in Australia.
The other category I would call upcoming markets, through social media I can see countries where the scene might not be as well established but it is definitely growing. An example would be areas of Europe. The biggest unknown for me would be China, general media would tell me with their rising middle class and the demand for luxury goods at a higher level is also driving the GT-R market there. I am no vehicle exporter/importer but understand they have to bring these cars in through Hong Kong. It is worth mentioning both Hong Kong and Thailand have a growing scene, at a guess I would say the fit more into this second category of up and coming but I can’t say for sure.
Regardless of which two categories we look at, it means that the approximately 11,500 R34 GT-Rs produced (http://gtr-registry.com/) have to be spread over a larger number of potential buyers. To give you some idea there were more Ferrari 458s produced in the world than R34 GT-Rs…
Australia
Looking locally (within Australia that is, if anyone from overseas reads this – hello!) what is going on? We are seeing no cars for sale, why is that? Discussions with other owners reveals a few train of thoughts:
- Generally genuine enthusiasts who have always wanted an R34 GT-R and have managed to get one are holding tight and not selling.
- Some owners, who have been swayed by the large sale price they can get for their cars, have sold. These cars have ranged from basic examples to modified/collectible examples.
- This now leaves a vacuum where no cars are available…
So who is buying these cars? Some enthusiasts have realised if they don’t buy their dream car now they may get out of reach – so I have seen some very excited new owners. What I suspect has really driven the market up quickly here in Australia, is opportunistic exporters/buyers looking to make money by exporting to the USA in the future or reselling in the local market at a much higher price. There are well known players in the market who have been posting ‘Wanted To Buy’ posts on social media and some who are working more quietly behind the scenes. Remember how I said earlier Americans are storing up cars, you can bet your bottom dollar it is happening here too. I will point out again, there is nothing illegal about this, it is simply ‘facts’ as they say.
Pros & Cons
So what are the pros and cons of all this activity? Being a positive kinda guy I am going to start with the cons so I can finish on a positive!
Cons:
- BNR34s cost more to buy – kind of an obvious statement but the negative to this higher cost of entry is people missing out. I have mates who are genuine enthusiasts who would love and have always been working towards owning one but they seem to be getting out of reach quicker than they can get into one.
- Insurance prices are increasing whilst coverage options are decreasing.
- Nissan OEM parts are becoming harder to find as they sell out and are discontinued, the corresponding demand means the cost of these parts is also increasing. Sadly people are buying up large amounts of stock presumably to control the pricing later on when they become scarce.
- Potentially the saddest part of this story is these cars aren’t being driven anymore, I have only anecdotal observations no hard data. However, I can tell you I used to see these cars on the road and now it is a much rarer occurrence. I can also tell you that owners I have talked to have to take into account insurance costs, thefts, etc. when they do drive, so that backs up the idea less are being driven on the roads. Of course I am never going to tell people what they should do with their cars, if you want to keep it in your garage as a piece of art more power to you! What I consider a negative is all these points meaning people no longer feel comfortable taking their cars out (in fact I know of people selling their cars as they feel they’re too scared whenever they do take their GT-R out).
Pros:
- This is the flip side to my first negative point but with the price going up so much this will mean a lot more serious GT-R enthusiasts will be own/buy these, not the general public, presumably meaning they will keep them in better condition, etc.
- With the popularity of all RB GT-Rs (BNR32, BNCR33 & BNR34) Nissan/Nismo has been releasing a range of parts through their Heritage range that have been either discontinued or were shortly to be. If you are interested this is how it works, straight from Nissan themselves: “NISMO heritage parts are classified into 1: Reproduced genuine products and 2: NISMO replaced products depending on the manufacturing method. 1: Nissan genuine repair parts that have been discontinued are reprinted and produced by the same supplier. The package will be the same as genuine Nissan parts. 2: NISMO’s new production in near-genuine condition, based on the drawings of discontinued Nissan genuine parts. The material and construction method may differ from the Nissan genuine parts.”
- Not only can you buy new Nissan parts but what other car are aftermarket manufacturers continuing to develop as much as the GT-R? It is possible to buy a wide a huge range of parts, ranging from small items to complete engines!
- If you wish to get a lot of attention at car meets and on the road in general, this car will do it! Insta fame anyone? Of course this could be considered a con as well…
- Finally the amount of information and the worldwide community dedicated to these cars has increased and as a whole is a definite positive! If you need information it is much more readily available and accurate than it was. As I am sure many owners would understand, I wouldn’t have some of the mates I do if it weren’t for these cars!
A Rising Tide Lifts All Boats
One of my favourite sayings – it is worth mentioning that as GT-Rs increase in popularity other Skyline models have also been increasing in price and popularity. It is no secret I am a big fan of the GTST-T / GT-T variations, they are a fantastic car overshadowed by their GT-R brethren but they are also creeping up in price. This is also happening to the wider range of 90s/00s sports cars for many of the reasons I have mentioned so far!
The Future…
So, what does the future (insert sci-fi music here) hold…? I don’t have a crystal ball but I think there are a few safe assumptions to be made. The days of ‘cheap’ GT-Rs are gone, we have all heard the stories – R34 GT-Rs were 35K AUD, I even remember thinking a seller who was trying to get 50K AUD for their Midnight Purple III car was a bit optimistic… hindsight! The current demand coming from the American market will take some time to subside, which is effecting the global market. When it does, the new normal will be much higher than it has been. I have seen various price estimates and the general consensus is the base model R34 GT-R will equal out at approximately 15oUSD, 200AUD or 15 Million Yen. Of course, higher spec models, low kms, etc. will attract higher pricing. Any higher than this and you really start getting into ‘super car’ territory which means you have to be an absolute die hard to choose the 34! Even as it stands now, an R35 GT-R is a better proposition in every real tangible way than a 34 but of course the X factor with these cars is what people are buying. Time will tell where pricing settles….
Will/has Covid 19 had any influence on pricing, initially I would have guessed it would but to be honest it doesn’t appear to have! Of course how long it continues for might have some implications yet.
So that is my take on what is happening in the market and on the scene at the moment. Of course these are just my personal views, if you have your own thoughts, questions or just wish to sell me your GT-R at 2013 prices get in touch via the usual Instagram/Facebook channels!